Are the AVN and XBIZ Awards rigged? Let’s do the math …

In February (when I was working on another site) I did an article about agents and awards. I noticed that one agent more than any other were winning awards. So I hired a guy who has a PhD in Theoretical Astrophysics, as well as a degree in Theoretical Physics who was a particle physicist at CERN and current math teacher, who helped me calculate these odds of that happening.

 Assuming that each agent has an equal likelihood of being chosen each year, the probability of the same agent being chosen all five years is 1 in 1,048,576.

Actually let’s start over from the beginning because it’s a good story.

For years people have been saying the AVN awards are rigged. Are they? I don’t know. But I came across some damning evidence that makes you really wonder, if not the entire AVN awards, maybe there is something to the rumors at least in two of the categories.

I love statistics. So I decided to let the math speak for itself.

The first thing I did was make a list of everyone who won an AVN award in the two categories in question and made a list. I went back 5 years. Then I decided to throw in the same data for the XBIZ awards. I mean if it happens with one awards, why not see about the other, right? Let me show you what I mean …

AVN Female Performer of the Year

  • 2016 – Riley Reid (Spiegler)
  • 2015 – Anikka Albrite (Spiegler)
  • 2014 – Bonnie Rotten (Spiegler)
  • 2013 – Asa Akira (Spiegler)
  • 2012 – Bobbi Starr (Spiegler)

There are roughly 16 LA licensed agents right now. What are the odds that out of the 16 or so legit agents in the business, every single winner for the last 5 years comes from one single agent?

Now let’s come both awards for this category.

AVN Female Performer of the Year

  • 2016 – Riley Reid (Spiegler)
  • 2015 – Anikka Albrite (Spiegler)
  • 2014 – Bonnie Rotten (Spiegler)
  • 2013 – Asa Akira (Spiegler)
  • 2012 – Bobbi Starr (Spiegler)

XBIZ Female Performer of the Year

  • 2016 – Dani Daniels (OC Modeling)
  • 2015 – Anikka Albrite (Spiegler)
  • 2014 – Riley Reid (Spiegler)
  • 2013 – Brooklyn Lee (Spiegler)
  • 2012 – Asa Akira (Spiegler)

See a pattern yet?

The odds for something like that occurring 5 years in a row have to be astronomical, right? So I thought well it could just be a crazy coincidence and to find out, I decided to add in another category – the other most important performer category – best new starlet.

AVN Best New Starlet

  • 2016 – Abella Danger (Spiegler)
  • 2015 – Carter Cruise (Spiegler)
  • 2014 – Mia Malkova (Matrix Models)
  • 2013 – Remy LaCroix (Spiegler)
  • 2012 – Brooklyn Lee (Spiegler)

In this important performer category, Spiegler girls won 4 out of 5 years. Again the odds of this happening are huge. I mean come on …. out of 16 agents, one wins every single time for 5 years in a row and 4 out of 5 times in the other category?

Something just seems off there, no? So let’s take a look over at XBIZ. These are the winners of the XBIZ Awards for the last 5 years. Same pattern emerges …

AVN Best New Starlet

  • 2016 – Abella Danger (Spiegler)
  • 2015 – Carter Cruise (Spiegler)
  • 2014 – Mia Malkova (Matrix Models)
  • 2013 – Remy LaCroix (Spiegler)
  • 2012 – Brooklyn Lee (Spiegler)

XBIZ Best New Starlet

  • 2016 – Abella Danger (Spiegler)
  • 2015 – Carter Cruise (Spiegler)
  • 2014 – Christy Mack (101 Modeling)
  • 2013 – Riley Reid (Spiegler)
  • 2012 – Jessie Andrews (Spiegler)

Awards season is my absolute favorite time of the year. Besides the obvious marketing advantage to award nominations there is also the fun of getting ready for the shows and getting to see what everyone is wearing. Red carpet is just absolutely the best.

So again I wanted to know what the odds where of this happening on it’s own.

I’m horrible at math but even common sense will tell you that the odds that the same agent has the winner porn star every year in a row for 5 years running is high. Lucky for me I found a guy from Ireland who has a PhD in Theoretical Astrophysics, as well as a degree in Theoretical Physics who was a particle physicist at CERN and current math teacher, who helped me calculate these odds.

Here is what he had to say …

Assuming that each agent has an equal likelihood of being chosen each year, the probability of the same agent being chosen all five years is 1 in 1,048,576.

Those are some crazy odds that a Spiegler girl would win 5 years in a row …. 1 in a million chance and yet it happened! Can you believe it?

  • LA Direct Models (as of today) has 53 female performers on their roster.
  • Spiegler has 31 female performers on their roster.
  • OC Modeling has has 52 female performers on their roster.
  • ATMLA has 45 female performers on their roster.

In all that works out to be 181 total active female performers.

Now out of those 181 female performers. Who are the most popular? To determine this we turn to our friend Google. Every time a fan Google’s their favorite porn star’s name, Google records that search. The more “searches” a particular porn star has, the more famous she is.

They record the same data for all celebs. That’s why at the beginning of each year you see those most popular celeb lists. Anyway back to porn stars … I ran a report today at Google. So keep in mind this data is valid as of July 14, 2016.

Out of the top 4 agencies (LA Direct Models, OC Modeling, ATMLA and Spiegler Girls) who has the most famous performers?

LA Direct Models – BY FAR. There wasn’t even a competition. Let’s look at the top 10 and you’ll see why.

  1. Alexis Texas (LA Direct) 2,740,000 searches per month
  2. Asa Akira (Spiegler) 1,220,000 searches per month
  3. Tori Black (LA Direct) 1 million searches per month
  4. Dani Daniels (OC Modeling) 823k searches per month
  5. Dillion Harper (LA Direct) 823k searches a month
  6. Mia Malkova (LA Direct) 823k searches a month
  7. Riley Reid (Spiegler) 823k searches a month
  8. Julia Ann (ATMLA) 550k searches a month
  9. Peta Jensen (OC Modeling) 550k searches a month
  10. Valentina Nappi (Spiegler) 550k searches a month

42% of the best talent belong with LA Direct

24% of the best talent belong with Spiegler

22% of the best talent belong with OC Modeling

12% of the best talent belong with ATMLA

  • The girls at LA Direct Models get a total of 9,074,930 searches per month.
  • The girls with Spiegler get 5,072,990 searches per month.
  • The girls with OC Modeling get 4,674,090 searches per month.
  • The girls with ATMLA get 2,624,590 searches per month.
That means that LA Direct Models has the hottest bitches in the world. So statistically speaking, their girls should win the most awards, right?
Alexis Texas LA Direct 2,740,000
Asa Akira Spiegler 1,220,000
Tori Black LA Direct 1,000,000
Dani Daniels OC Modeling 823,000
Dillion Harper LA Direct 823,000
Mia Malkova LA Direct 823,000
Riley Reid Spiegler 823,000
Julia Ann ATMLA 550,000
Peta Jensen OC Modeling 550,000
Valentina Nappi Spiegler 550,000
Jynx Maze LA Direct 450,000
Lexi Belle LA Direct 450,000
Abella Danger Spiegler 301,000
Ava Taylor LA Direct 301,000
Adriana Chechik LA Direct 246,000
Holly Michaels OC Modeling 246,000
India Summer ATMLA 246,000
Megan Rain LA Direct 246,000
Romi Rain OC Modeling 246,000
Skin Diamond Spiegler 246,000
Alura Jenson OC Modeling 201,000
Brooklyn Chase OC Modeling 201,000
Carter Cruise Spiegler 201,000
Chanel Preston Spiegler 201,000
Elsa Jean ATMLA 201,000
Summer Brielle OC Modeling 201,000
AJ Applegate Spiegler 165,000
Anikka Albrite Spiegler 165,000
Brett Rossi OC Modeling 165,000
Bridgette B ATMLA 165,000
Jessa Rhodes OC Modeling 165,000
Katrina Jade OC Modeling 165,000
Kayla Kayden LA Direct 165,000
Naomi Woods LA Direct 165,000
Riley Steele LA Direct 165,000
Alix Lynx OC Modeling 135,000
Anna Bell Peaks OC Modeling 135,000
Karla Kush OC Modeling 135,000
Luna Star Spiegler 135,000
Natalia Starr LA Direct 135,000
Natasha Nice LA Direct 135,000
Nina Elle ATMLA 135,000
Sophia Grace ATMLA 135,000
Tasha Reign LA Direct 135,000
Anya Ivy OC Modeling 110,000
Briana Banks OC Modeling 110,000
Cherie Deville OC Modeling 110,000
Destiny Dixon ATMLA 110,000
Karlee Grey ATMLA 110,000
Kristina Rose Spiegler 110,000
Mercedes Carrera ATMLA 110,000
Penny Pax Spiegler 110,000
Alexis Adams ATMLA 90,500
Brooke Wylde OC Modeling 90,500
Casey Calvert Spiegler 90,500
Chloe Amour LA Direct 90,500
Dani Jensen LA Direct 90,500
Jessie Andrews Spiegler 90,500
Mia Li ATMLA 90,500
Sara Luvv ATMLA 90,500
Shay Laren LA Direct 90,500
Shyla Jennings OC Modeling 90,500
Veruca James Spiegler 90,500
Yurizan Beltran LA Direct 90,500
Dana DeArmond Spiegler 74,000
Elle Alexandra OC Modeling 74,000
Joseline Kelly ATMLA 74,000
Karlie Montana ATMLA 74,000
Shawna Lenee LA Direct 74,000
August Taylor ATMLA 60,500
Courtney Taylor OC Modeling 60,500
Dana Vespoli Spiegler 60,500
Marica Hase Spiegler 60,500
Morgan Lee LA Direct 60,500
Syren De Mer OC Modeling 60,500
Abby Lee Brazil LA Direct 49,500
Alexis Love LA Direct 49,500
Alice March ATMLA 49,500
Christie Stevens OC Modeling 49,500
Lily LaBeau Spiegler 49,500
Maddy O’Reilly Spiegler 49,500
Melissa Moore Spiegler 49,500
Michelle Maylene LA Direct 49,500
Alyssa Lynn OC Modeling 40,500
Charlotte Stokely OC Modeling 40,500
Cindy Starfall OC Modeling 40,500
Jaclyn Taylor OC Modeling 40,500
Jenna Sativa Spiegler 40,500
Kimberly Brix LA Direct 40,500
Lana Rhoades Spiegler 40,500
Mia Lelani LA Direct 40,500
Olivia Austin OC Modeling 40,500
Yhivi Spiegler 40,500
Zoey Monroe OC Modeling 40,500
Aaliyah Love ATMLA 33,100
Adria Rae LA Direct 33,100
Alexis Monroe LA Direct 33,100
JoJo Kiss OC Modeling 33,100
Karina White OC Modeling 33,100
Layla Sin OC Modeling 33,100
Layton Benton LA Direct 33,100
Madelyn Monroe ATMLA 33,100
Reena Sky LA Direct 33,100
Samia Duarte ATMLA 33,100
Sarah Jessie OC Modeling 33,100
Aiden Starr Spiegler 27,100
Jayden Lee OC Modeling 27,100
Kendall Kayden LA Direct 27,100
Leya Falcon OC Modeling 27,100
McKenzie Lee ATMLA 27,100
Tia Cyrus LA Direct 27,100
Brooke Logan LA Direct 22,200
Carmen Callaway ATMLA 22,200
Dahlia Sky Spiegler 22,200
Jayme Langford ATMLA 22,200
Jenna J Ross ATMLA 22,200
Trinity St. Clair OC Modeling 22,200
Aspen Ora ATMLA 18,100
Bella Rose LA Direct 18,100
Cristi Ann OC Modeling 18,100
Heather Vahn LA Direct 18,100
Hope Howell LA Direct 18,100
Kimberly Kendall LA Direct 18,100
Kinsley Eden LA Direct 18,100
Lea Lexis Spiegler 18,100
Michelle Taylor LA Direct 18,100
Aleksa Nicole ATMLA 14,800
Anna De Ville Spiegler 14,800
Jay Taylor ATMLA 14,800
Jessica Ryan ATMLA 14,800
Rachael Madori Spiegler 14,800
Shay Evans LA Direct 14,800
angel Smalls ATMLA 12,100
Goldie Rush OC Modeling 12,100
Jenna Ashley ATMLA 12,100
Kira Noir Spiegler 12,100
Kylie Nicole OC Modeling 12,100
Yasmine De Leon OC Modeling 12,100
Iris Rose ATMLA 9,900
Kharlie Stone LA Direct 9,900
Amber Ivy ATMLA 8,100
Dallas Black OC Modeling 8,100
Sara Vandella ATMLA 8,100
Sadie Blair LA Direct 6,600
Pepper XO LA Direct 5,400
Cleo Vixen ATMLA 4,400
Lacie James OC Modeling 4,400
Lilly Banks OC Modeling 4,400
Niki Snow OC Modeling 4,400
Nina Dolci OC Modeling 4,400
Ryan Riesling OC Modeling 4,400
Sandy Fantasy LA Direct 4,400
Zoey Laine ATMLA 4,400
Alana Luv OC Modeling 3,600
Alison Rey ATMLA 3,600
Assh Lee OC Modeling 3,600
Dixie Comet ATMLA 3,600
Kiera Rose ATMLA 3,600
Leilani Gold LA Direct 3,600
Raquel Roper OC Modeling 3,600
Tegan Presley LA Direct 3,600
Amy FAye ATMLA 2,900
Sarah Banks OC Modeling 2,900
Shavelle Love LA Direct 1,600
Riley Reyes ATMLA 1,300
Stevie Lix ATMLA 1,300
Ally Tate LA Direct 1,000
Stevie Foxx ATMLA 880
Zelda Morrison LA Direct 720
Lily Jordan ATMLA 480
Portia Harlow ATMLA 480
Savanna Styles OC Modeling 480
Allora Ashlyn LA Direct 390
Ara Alexander Spiegler 390
Ashlee Mae ATMLA 320
Jill Kassidy LA Direct 260
Kelly Paige LA Direct 260
Bre Blu OC Modeling 110
Marily Moore ATMLA 30
Kiyanna Marie LA Direct  —
Peyton Coast OC Modeling  —
With a million to 1 odds against it happening and knowing the most popular porn stars are with another agent, how is it Spiegler girls are winning the awards?
I can’t say for sure if something funny is going on or not, but the numbers are staggeringly odd.
Draw your own conclusions.


  1. Kelli

    For those of you asking about the math here is what he said ….

    (1/16)^5 = 1/1048576 = 0.00000095367431640625….
    or, as a percentage, is
    100*(1/16)^5 = 100/1048576 = 0.000095367431640625….
    or, in terms of odds, is
    (1048576-1):1 = 1048575:1

  2. Kelli

    Some people have gotten a little butt hurt over my post. They say it doesn’t happen, that award shows real or porn are not rigged. I wanted to share with you my response to that person to clear up any confusion.


    I don’t know if you have heard of a little company called MTV and their annual “Teen Choice Awards”. It’s a very big deal to the younger crowd. They had a HUGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE scandal over the awards being rigged. Google it. It’s quite funny.

    So yes, it happens everywhere — Mainstream and porn.

    But is that really the point?

    No. To me the most interesting part of the full post was the math. The probability and percentages. I mean who would have figured that LA Direct Models is sitting on top of 42% of the most popular active porn performers? I knew he had some hot girls on the site but that number was WAY higher than I would have thought, especially when you compare it to the other top 3 agents.

    I’m not going to lie. I would have thought Derek’s day was over but after seeing his numbers, I was so dead wrong.

    I personally LOVE the AVN awards and somewhat to a lesser extent the XBIZ awards. They are obviously great for marketing purposes but more than that, as a girl who doesn’t love the red carpet? I mean come on … totally the best part!

    Yes there are some statistically anomalies in a few of the award categories, I don’t think anyone would deny that. But does it mean the show is rigged?

    I really can’t even say that myself. I mean odd YES. But rigged? Ehhh, it’s really hard to know for sure.

    That’s why I said, what do you think? You need to draw your own conclusions.

    It’s all in good fun. I think the guys over at AVN by now know how much I actually love their show and have long been a HUGE supporter of it, especially the red carpet. Heck, I even helped Cezar Capone coordinate the red carpet show back in 2008.

    The whole swarovski crystals on the mics … that was totally me!

    So let’s stop getting so butt hurt over a silly little story.

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